As Colombians prepare to vote on June 21, experts warn that the outcome could influence regional stability, migration, human rights and democratic governance far beyond the country’s borders.
On June 21, Colombians will return to the polls for a presidential runoff that observers describe as one of the most consequential elections in the country’s recent history. The race between Iván Cepeda of Pacto Histórico and Abelardo de la Espriella of Salvación Nacional has become a referendum on the future of Colombia’s democracy, security policies, peace agreements, and its role within Latin America.
But according to scholars, journalists, and researchers who participated in an American Community Media briefing, this election is about much more than choosing a president. It reflects deeper tensions that have been building across the region: growing public frustration with democratic institutions, rising insecurity, territorial disputes, and the increasing popularity of strongman leadership models.
“Polarization” has become the most common word used to describe Latin America’s political landscape. However, Beatriz Magaloni, professor of Political Science and senior fellow at Stanford University, argues that the term oversimplifies what is really happening.
“What we are observing is not necessarily an ideological conflict between left and right,” Magaloni said. “It is about how people experience the failure of the state in their everyday lives.”
Two Colombias, two different realities
Experts described a country divided by fundamentally different experiences of insecurity.
In urban and semi-urban areas, many Colombians are increasingly concerned about crime, extortion, and the government’s inability to guarantee public safety. These voters are demanding immediate solutions and have become more receptive to tough-on-crime proposals.
Meanwhile, rural communities, particularly Indigenous and Afro-Colombian populations, face a different reality. Their biggest threat comes from armed groups fighting for territorial control over strategic areas linked to drug trafficking routes, mining operations, natural resources, and illegal economies.
According to Magaloni, these communities continue to suffer human rights abuses, displacement, and violence, while social leaders and territorial defenders are frequently targeted.
“The two Colombias are not talking to each other,” she said. “Each side sees the other as a threat instead of recognizing that both are experiencing legitimate forms of insecurity.”
Researchers also highlighted that many armed groups operating today are no longer driven by ideology. Instead, they are motivated by profit and territorial control.
Data presented during the briefing showed a significant expansion of organized criminal groups across Colombian municipalities between 2019 and 2025, with former paramilitary structures, FARC dissident factions, and other organizations increasing their presence throughout the country.
Land, peace agreements, and historical wounds
Journalist and sociologist Manuel Ortiz, who recently traveled through several Colombian regions, emphasized that many current conflicts are rooted in decades of violence and land dispossession.
During fieldwork in Cauca and Montes de María, Ortiz documented ongoing disputes involving Indigenous and Afro-Colombian communities struggling to recover territories they lost during previous periods of armed conflict.
“These elections are not simply about left or right,” Ortiz said. “They are about democracy, land restitution, peace agreements, and whether Colombia continues efforts to address historical injustices.”
In Cauca, two Indigenous communities, the Nasa and Misak peoples, recently experienced violent clashes over disputed land. While media reports initially framed the conflict as a confrontation between Indigenous groups, Ortiz explained that both communities ultimately identified land dispossession and unresolved territorial claims as the underlying causes.
Many communities fear that a shift in political direction could halt or reverse progress made in land recovery efforts.
For populations that have endured decades of displacement, the election represents a decision about whether reconciliation and institutional solutions will continue to be prioritized.
Democracy under pressure across Latin America
The discussion also placed Colombia within a broader regional context.
Experts warned that Latin America is witnessing a rise in political figures who promote strongman approaches to governance by promising quick solutions to complex problems such as insecurity, migration, and economic instability.
Several panelists drew comparisons with leaders in other countries who have embraced “mano dura,” or heavy-handed security policies.
According to Magaloni, public dissatisfaction with democracy stems from a perception that democratic systems are no longer delivering effective solutions.
Surveys conducted across multiple Latin American countries show that insecurity is one of citizens’ top concerns, fueling support for tougher security measures, even when these approaches may threaten civil liberties and due process.
“People still value democracy,” Magaloni said. “They value freedom of expression, the right to protest, and individual rights. But they are increasingly willing to sacrifice due process protections if they believe it will solve insecurity.”
Researchers warned that this trend could weaken democratic institutions throughout the region.
Why the world is watching Colombia
The implications of Colombia’s election extend beyond national borders.
The country plays a central role in migration flows, regional security, and international efforts to combat drug trafficking. Political developments in Colombia could also influence neighboring countries facing similar challenges.
The panelists noted that issues such as migration, organized crime, and drug markets require international cooperation rather than isolated national responses.
At the same time, they cautioned against political narratives that portray migrants or vulnerable communities as sources of insecurity, arguing that such rhetoric has become increasingly common worldwide.
As Colombians prepare to cast their ballots, the stakes are becoming clearer. This election is not only about choosing between two candidates, but also about determining how one of Latin America’s most influential democracies will confront insecurity, inequality, and historical divisions in the years ahead.
For many observers, the outcome could offer a glimpse into the future of democracy across the region itself.