On October 23, Ethnic Media Services presented a briefing together with Senate Intelligence Committee Chair Mark Warner. During the discussion, Senator Warner addressed how artificial intelligence is being employed by foreign actors to manipulate messaging directed at U.S. voters. He also expressed his belief that the U.S. is more vulnerable to global election interference in 2024 than it was in 2020.
As the 2024 U.S. elections draw nearer, concerns about foreign interference have reached unprecedented levels. The landscape of election interference has evolved dramatically since 2020, with artificial intelligence (AI) emerging as a powerful tool for foreign actors seeking to manipulate messaging directed at U.S. voters. The sophistication of AI-driven disinformation, combined with growing polarization within the U.S., makes the country more vulnerable to election interference than ever before. Understanding how AI is being weaponized by foreign adversaries and why the U.S. is more exposed to global election manipulation today is critical for safeguarding the upcoming election.
The Role of AI in Foreign Election Interference
Artificial intelligence, with its ability to process vast amounts of data, generate realistic content, and target individuals with precision, has fundamentally changed the way foreign actors approach election interference. In 2020, foreign disinformation campaigns often relied on relatively basic tactics, such as using social media bots to spread false information or hacking political organizations and leaking damaging documents. While those methods were disruptive, they pale in comparison to the advanced capabilities AI now offers.
Deepfakes and AI-Generated Media: One of the most concerning AI tools available to foreign actors is the use of deepfakes—highly realistic but entirely fabricated videos and audio clips. Deepfakes can portray political figures saying or doing things they never actually did, making it increasingly difficult for voters to distinguish fact from fiction. In the 2024 election cycle, these AI-generated deepfakes have the potential to go viral on social media, spreading false narratives faster than they can be debunked.
Hyper-Personalized Disinformation Campaigns: AI allows for the creation of hyper-personalized disinformation campaigns, in which foreign actors can target U.S. voters with precision. By analyzing vast amounts of publicly available data, including social media profiles, online behavior, and search history, AI tools can craft tailored messages designed to exploit individual fears, preferences, and biases. In 2020, foreign actors typically used broad narratives to influence voters; in 2024, AI enables them to target voters on a granular level.
AI-Generated Text and Social Media Bots: In 2020, social media bots were used to amplify disinformation, but these bots often relied on simplistic, pre-programmed messaging. Today, AI-generated text has become indistinguishable from content created by humans. AI-powered bots can engage in meaningful conversations, respond to real-time events, and participate in debates on social media platforms, all while pushing foreign narratives.
These AI-driven bots are not limited to spreading false information; they can also be used to suppress voter turnout by promoting cynicism, confusion, or apathy among voters. For instance, a bot might engage users in discussions questioning the efficacy of voting, or it might falsely claim that certain polling stations have been closed. AI’s ability to flood social media with believable and responsive content makes it harder for users to discern what is authentic and what is part of a foreign influence operation.
Senator Mark Warner, D-Virginia, Chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee said: “The good news is that the security of our voting system, our voting machines and our election officials is actually quite good. The bad news is that our adversaries, China, Russia, Iran particularly, those three, have realized it is effective and cheap to spread misinformation and disinformation at a greater level.”
Why the U.S. is More Vulnerable in 2024
While the U.S. took significant steps to protect the 2020 election from foreign interference, it faces new and greater challenges in 2024. A combination of technological advances, political polarization, and institutional weaknesses has left the country more vulnerable to foreign election interference than it was four years ago.
Increased Political Polarization: U.S. society is more polarized in 2024 than it was in 2020, providing fertile ground for foreign influence operations. Studies have shown that highly polarized societies are more susceptible to disinformation, as individuals are more likely to seek out and believe information that aligns with their existing views, regardless of its accuracy. Foreign adversaries understand this dynamic and are exploiting it.
Erosion of Trust in Institutions: Trust in government, media, and the electoral process has been significantly eroded in recent years. In 2020, many Americans already questioned the legitimacy of the election results due to widespread disinformation campaigns. In 2024, this distrust has only deepened, making it easier for foreign actors to sow confusion and doubt about the outcome of the election.
Weaknesses in Social Media Regulation: Despite efforts to regulate disinformation on social media platforms, the sheer volume and sophistication of AI-generated content make it difficult for companies to keep up. Platforms have implemented new tools for detecting and removing false information, but AI is constantly evolving, making it an ongoing challenge to stay ahead of foreign actors who use AI to evade detection.
Emerging Geopolitical Tensions: The geopolitical landscape has shifted since 2020, with growing tensions between the U.S. and countries like Russia, China, and Iran. These nations have a vested interest in destabilizing U.S. democracy and influencing the outcome of the 2024 election. AI gives these adversaries a powerful tool to achieve their goals.
“More and more Americans exacerbated by certain political candidates are willing to believe just crazy stuff off the internet with no basis in fact, and oftentimes our adversaries will simply amplify things that conspiracy theories that may appear on the internet.”, remarkedWarner
Protecting the 2024 Election from AI-Driven Interference
To combat the growing threat of AI-driven foreign interference in the 2024 election, the U.S. must take proactive steps to strengthen its defenses. This will require a coordinated effort between government agencies, social media platforms, and civil society organizations. Key actions include:
Investing in AI Detection Tools: The U.S. must continue to develop advanced AI detection tools capable of identifying deepfakes, AI-generated text, and other forms of AI-driven disinformation. Public and private partnerships are essential to staying ahead of foreign adversaries who seek to manipulate voters with AI.
Promoting Media Literacy: Educating the public about the threat of AI-generated disinformation is critical. Voters need to be able to recognize deepfakes and other forms of manipulated content. Media literacy campaigns should be a central component of any election defense strategy.
Strengthening Election Infrastructure: While AI-driven disinformation poses a significant threat, traditional cyberattacks on election infrastructure remain a concern. Protecting voting systems, voter registration databases, and other critical infrastructure from both cyber and AI-driven attacks is essential for ensuring a free and fair election.
The use of artificial intelligence by foreign actors to manipulate U.S. voters represents a significant escalation in the threat to U.S. elections. The 2024 election is more vulnerable to foreign interference than it was in 2020, due in large part to the advanced capabilities of AI and the growing polarization within the U.S. Protecting the integrity of the election will require new strategies, tools, and a heightened sense of urgency from all stakeholders.