In a recent forum, experts analyzed the Mexican president’s diplomatic approach toward Donald Trump. The discussion, centered on bilateral relations, highlighted how moderation and dialogue have been key to managing political and economic tensions between the two countries.​

During Donald Trump’s presidency, U.S. foreign policy has been characterized by a direct approach and, in many cases, harsh rhetoric accompanied by the use of tariffs as a pressure tool. In response, Mexico—under the leadership of Claudia Sheinbaum—opted for a less conventional path: maintaining composure, sustaining dialogue, and avoiding provocation. This was the central thesis of the forum “Mexico-U.S. Relations: A Model for Diplomacy in the Trump Era?” organized by American Community Media on April 25, which brought together experts in bilateral relations to analyze Sheinbaum’s diplomatic style when dealing with such a demanding and unpredictable counterpart.​

In addition to evaluating the achievements of this approach, the panelists discussed the new challenges that the relationship between the two countries will face, marked by a changing geopolitical landscape and the need to strengthen cooperation on economic and security issues. Sheinbaum’s strategy, based on pragmatism and constant dialogue, has allowed Mexico to negotiate exceptions in trade policies and maintain a relatively stable relationship with the United States, even in the face of a volatile president.​

Sheinbaum and the Strategy to Normalize Trump

Sheinbaum’s administration has adopted a stance of moderation in the face of Trump’s provocations, aiming to maintain economic and political stability. This strategy has been key to preserving the flow of foreign investments and the value of the Mexican peso.​

“Mexico remains committed to an internationalized economic model. That hasn’t changed,” said David Ayón, Senior Fellow at the Leavy Center for the Study of L.A., Loyola Marymount University. “Since AMLO, and this has been continued by the current president, Mexico has maintained continuity with that model.”​

The global pandemic also played a role in this dynamic, benefiting Mexico by disrupting global supply chains and reducing dependence on China. The Mexican government has invested significantly in the Pacific port of Manzanillo, a strategy emphasized by Sheinbaum to ensure foreign investment.​

Tariffs: A Latent and Persistent Threat in Bilateral Relations

Trade tariffs have been a recurring tool in Mexico-U.S. relations, used both as an instrument of pressure and political negotiation. During Trump’s administration, the threat of imposing a 25% tariff served as leverage to force changes in migration and trade policies. Although that threat did not materialize, it highlighted the volatility of the bilateral relationship.

Currently, measures like the 21% tariff on Mexican tomatoes, set to take effect in July, reflect that these tensions have not disappeared but rather manifest in more sector-specific ways. While the USMCA has mitigated the most severe impacts, tariffs remain a latent threat that could be reactivated depending on political interests or internal pressures in either country. For Mexico, this implies maintaining a strategy of preventive diplomacy, constant negotiations, and market diversification to reduce vulnerability to unilateral decisions from Washington.​

Historical Changes in Bilateral Relations

For Claudia Sheinbaum, this is her first term as president of Mexico, while Trump has previously held the presidency. Mexico has become the United States’ main trading partner, with significant economic and social gains. Following the elections of both leaders, Wall Street quickly moved to Mexico City to ensure the strength of the bilateral relationship.​

“Donald Trump is the president of the media,” commented Luis Alvarado, a Los Angeles-based political analyst. “He understands that he can raise funds through them. Sheinbaum has been very successful in understanding how Trump views the world and how he manages other countries through them.”​

The Mexican president has chosen to appease and tell Trump what he wants to hear, a strategy that contrasts with Canada’s approach. “The landscape is that there are two state axes using the media as diplomatic tools to ensure that both succeed in negotiating,” added Alvarado.​

Tariffs as a Political Tool

Alberto Díaz-Cayeros, professor at the Freeman Spogli Institute and former director of the Center for Latin American Studies (CLAS) at Stanford, offers two interpretations of the tariffs imposed by Trump. The first is that their use has more to do with a geopolitical issue than with trade itself. The United States seeks to redefine its sphere of influence and how Mexico fits into it.​

The second interpretation focuses on Claudia Sheinbaum’s figure. “People need to understand that she is her own person with her own perspective,” said Díaz-Cayeros, highlighting her decision-making ability and her excellent career, including her participation in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) team that received the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.​

A Marriage of Convenience: Interdependence in Trade and Security

Larry Rubin, president and chairman of the board of the American Society of Mexico, emphasized the importance of the bilateral relationship beyond trade. “Mexico plays a very important role, probably no other country or region plays as important a role as Mexico,” he said. “Both countries have a very particular relationship.”​

Rubin also highlighted concerns about the USMCA’s renewal in 2026, pointing out two key aspects: recent changes in the Mexican judicial branch, which affect the perception of independence, and the implementation of intellectual property rights agreed upon in the treaty.​

Future Prospects

The relationship between Mexico and the United States will continue to be complex and evolving. Although Sheinbaum’s moderate strategy has yielded results, issues such as the USMCA’s renewal, trade disputes, and judicial independence will require constant negotiation and diplomatic firmness in the coming years.