{"id":1697,"date":"2026-01-14T19:11:24","date_gmt":"2026-01-14T19:11:24","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/?p=1697"},"modified":"2026-01-14T19:11:24","modified_gmt":"2026-01-14T19:11:24","slug":"venezuela-faces-more-uncertainty-than-certainty-after-the-capture-of-nicolas-maduro","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/american-community-media\/venezuela-faces-more-uncertainty-than-certainty-after-the-capture-of-nicolas-maduro\/","title":{"rendered":"Venezuela Faces More Uncertainty Than Certainty After the Capture of Nicolas Maduro"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

The U.S. military intervention closed a chapter in the Venezuelan conflict, but opened an uncertain scenario, with power intact, oil as a priority, and a political future still without a clear direction.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

After months of conflict between the governments of Venezuela and the United States, the situation was resolved in the most drastic way. In the early hours of January 3, U.S. military forces bombed Caracas\u2019 military bases. This ended with the capture of Nicolas Maduro, who is to be prosecuted in U.S. courts for drug trafficking. The action abruptly closes a stage of the country\u2019s prolonged political conflict but also marks an even more uncertain one.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

In a briefing organized by American Community Media (ACoM)<\/a>, titled \u201cVenezuela After U.S. Military Action: What Comes Next for the Country and the World\u201d<\/em>, experts in law and international politics discussed the new landscape facing Venezuela and the potential consequences for U.S. society of using military force in an international intervention.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Anxiety, Confusion, and Hope-Free Expectations<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a social perspective, Alejandro Velasco, historian and professor at New York University, described a climate marked by contradictory emotions among Venezuelans. \u201cThere is anxiety, confusion, and shock,\u201d he said, emphasizing that despite Maduro\u2019s removal, \u201cfunctionally, nothing has changed in terms of the state\u2019s power apparatus.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

According to Velasco, the U.S. intervention radically altered the political chessboard but did not produce a real institutional rupture. \u201cWe are entering a completely different stage, where the United States intervenes directly, which changes the risks, opportunities, and limitations for all actors,\u201d he noted.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Velasco was emphatic in distinguishing expectation from optimism: \u201cIt is not hope that people feel, but a kind of contained expectation.\u201d Even gestures unthinkable weeks ago, such as partial releases of political prisoners or signs of reconciliation with Washington, spark more uncertainty than confidence among Venezuelans.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Democracy Is Off the Agenda<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

One of the conference\u2019s most critical points was the debate over an as-yet unplanned democratic transition. Velasco argued that for the Trump administration, this \u201cdoes not seem to be a real priority.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u201cThe message is very clear: it is not about freedom or democracy, but about material interests,\u201d he stated. In this vein, he recalled a phrase circulating among political analysts: \u201cTrump does not want a democratic Venezuela, he wants a useful Venezuela.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The weakness of the opposition, particularly that led by Mar\u00eda Corina Machado, and the control the state apparatus still holds explain, according to Velasco, why Washington has opted to support the de facto authorities without Maduro, rather than force a total collapse of the regime. \u201cCompletely dismantling the state would have meant chaos, paramilitarism, and open violence in the streets,\u201d he warned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

An Illegal Operation Under International Law<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

From a legal standpoint, Mariano de Alba was categorical: \u201cThere is no legal way to justify this operation under international law.\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

He reminded attendees that the United Nations Charter prohibits the use of force except in very specific cases, such as self defense or Security Council authorization, scenarios that did not occur in this case. \u201cThe fact that Maduro was not a legitimate president is irrelevant under international law because he exercised de facto control over the state,\u201d he explained.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De Alba also warned of the precedent this action sets. \u201cIt is concerning because it reinforces a logic of spheres of influence, where the United States seeks to impose its dominance in the Western Hemisphere through coercion and threats,\u201d he said, adding that the military success of the operation could encourage similar actions in other contexts.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Although Maduro faces charges in U.S. courts for drug trafficking, the lawyer considered it \u201cvery unlikely\u201d that he would be tried for crimes against humanity in the International Criminal Court, given the tense relations between that institution and the Trump administration.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Oil: The Central Objective and an Unrealistic Plan<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Roxanna Vigil focused her remarks on Washington\u2019s real objectives. For her, the focus is clearly on oil, not on democratic reconstruction. \u201cUntil President Trump publicly articulates a transition plan, there is no reason to think it is on the agenda,\u201d she stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vigil also put the strategic weight of Venezuelan crude into perspective: \u201cVenezuela produces around 900,000 barrels per day, less than 1% of global supply.\u201d Added to this is that the oil is heavy and difficult to refine, and its recovery would require long-term investments, legal stability, and independent courts. \u201cWe are talking about commitments spanning decades that do not fit with the current reality of the energy market,\u201d she said.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

She also expressed concern over the management of oil revenues. According to available information, the income would not go to the U.S. Treasury or Venezuelan institutions, but rather to opaque external accounts. \u201cWhere is the money going? Who controls it? Who represents the Venezuelan people in these decisions?\u201d she questioned.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The panelists agreed that the main deficit in the current scenario is the exclusion of Venezuelans from decisions about their own country. \u201cYou cannot talk about a democratic transition while the United States acts as if it owns Venezuela,\u201d Velasco stated.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

De Alba added that a sustainable solution requires prioritizing the population\u2019s interests, not just geopolitical ones. Vigil, for her part, warned that without independent oversight mechanisms, any economic scheme risks reproducing corruption and exclusion.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Meanwhile, Venezuela enters a new phase of its crisis: without Maduro, but without democracy; with foreign intervention, but without a clear political horizon. A scenario that, as the experts agreed, will have consequences far beyond its borders.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

The U.S. military intervention closed a chapter in the Venezuelan conflict, but opened an uncertain scenario, with power intact, oil as a priority, and a political future still without a clear direction. After months of conflict between the governments of Venezuela and the United States, the situation was resolved in the most drastic way. In […]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":1698,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[686],"tags":[1257,1277,1258,2319,2320,2318],"class_list":["post-1697","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-american-community-media","tag-acom","tag-american-community-media","tag-ee-uu","tag-nicolas-maduro","tag-u-s-military","tag-venezuela"],"amp_enabled":true,"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1697"}],"version-history":[{"count":1,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":1699,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/posts\/1697\/revisions\/1699"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media\/1698"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1697"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/categories?post=1697"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/lavoz.us.com\/homepage\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/tags?post=1697"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}